I'm curious to hear your guys thoughts on my cold 4-bet sizing & shove in this hand...
HPT Main Event $1,650 buy-in, 438 entries (this is a re-entry tournament through 9 levels)
Level 4 - Blinds $200 $400
Tight aggressive kid UTG has about $20k to start the hand & raises to $1,000
Maniac has about $55k & 3-bets to $2,800 from the button
I have JJ in the small blind & kind of an awkward stack for me in this spot with $27k
I cold 4-bet after thinking it through for quite a while in game (90 seconds maybe) to $5,200. Planning to probably fold if the UTG kid shoves & probably call anything the maniac does, but definitely would have had to think about it...
UTG frustratingly folds & the maniac snap calls.
Flop is 10 8 4 rainbow.
I decide to open shove for value sure she’ll call with any 10 & probably AKs, AQs, & maybe even KQs with back door flush draw.. That one might be a stretch even for her though. She’ll also call with any pocket pair for sure.
She rarely has AA KK or QQ in her range. I believe she would have shoved those hands pre-flop for sure. I thought she probably would have shoved 10 10 as well but can't be sure.
So my range vs her range; I have her crushed. Unfortunately she 3-bet & called a cold 4bet with 10 8 off-suite & its game over for me.
Walking out I was wishing I had made my 4-bet sizing a little bigger, maybe like $8k, but I was trying to protect my stack a little against the UTG raiser. Perhaps bet shoving the flop might be a little better, but I thought open shoving made my hand look a lot like AK & would show a ton of value to her open range.
Thoughts appreciated. Thanks Jeff
I guess maniac is a good description for her. Once the action gets back to her, depending on what kind of range she puts you on, and how she thinks about blockers the UTG player might have folded, she is in the ballpark on having odds to call from the covering stack. But then I have to wonder how much you’d have to raise to fold her out. And the part that frustrates me about plays like this, do you really want to fold her out? Your hand has her hand absolutely crushed, and your range is way ahead of the range she is apparently playing. If I am in your seat, I want her calling there. That just happened to be the one time out of six or seven that she outflops you.