So, this happened yesterday. $55 buy in tournament in a local casino. 500 chips is the starting stack, starting blinds are 5/10, and it's the second hand of the tournament. No reads yet. 10-handed and I get dealt AA on UTG+2, UTG had limped, so I raise to 45, and two people call on later positions. Everyone else folds. The flop is 8d 5d 6c. I don't have A of diamonds. I bet 90, one players folds, and the other one raises to 225, then I think about it for a minute and I go all in, he snap calls and shows 88. Flop and river are Q and J. I'm out. Did I screw up here? Should I have known better and folded to the raise? Or did I have any reason to believe he was on a straight or flush draw, or that he had an overpair worse than AA? After thinking about it I think I should have folded because it was too early to be playing for my whole stack but my other friends think I did the right thing. What do you guys think?
That's a tough one, with no reads. This is a dynamic flop, which means big overpairs, two-pairs, and sets want to close it out now. V is essentially committing his stack with this big raise. However, there are a lot of people who like to shove with flush draws. So there's that.
I ran this situation on Flopzilla against an opponent who is only making this raise with 2P+ and got a hand equity of only 10%. If you add overpairs to V's range you get a hand equity of 59%. Adding combo draws with a flush draw included actually drops our equity to 58%. Now if I remove the overpairs our equity drops to 38%. Adding flush draw that have no combo draw leaves our equity at 38%.
So what this boils down to is whether the player pool in this tournament tends to call this shove with overpairs.
I think your starting stack and the size of the buy-in make this a decent play, definitely not a bad one. With 500 starting, and you've already committed 135 chips, against 3 callers I fold but 2 I call, if I have more starting chips I fold or play pot control. A $55 tourney people will be doing plenty of crazy things that this is a winning play IMO, he could of had just a pair of 8s, or so many varieties of hands you had dominated. Don't get me wrong if this is the 2nd hand of $500 tourney more deep stacked I play pot control with that hand and fold if it gets crazy.
At my casino a $55 tourney is a turbo. Luck is involved and skill get's minimized. Bad luck here. The analysis from Monkeysystem above is significant. In my local casino (Foxwoods in CT) many players would call this ,your push, with an over pair. The $225 raise however is iffy. It could be a set or 2P+ and less likely to be a draw. Players in my casino would have called with a draw or a lesser made hand, I think. The amount of chips you have already committed against an unknown player means a fold would cripple you so that in a level or two you'd be in push fold mold any way. That leaves you 20 or so hands before you have to push or fold. I think I would fold this here and take my chances at getting a better situation over 20 hands or so before I enter push/fold stack size. Off course in a turbo push/fold is normal for me. Maybe it is because I would fold here.
In which casino can you quickly earn a large amount?