seems like I should call, but...

mrfleming
mrfleming
Veteran edited April 11 in Specific Hand Questions

I hit the advice button after the flop and all most all advisers said "fold." Only five advisers said to call. What got me to hesitate however was that I had 75.1% equity against the Cutoff, 79.8% equity over the SB, 80.7% over the BB and 63% over the UTG and reasonable pot odds to boot. Why are the advisers so dead set against a call?

Comments

  • mrfleming
    mrfleming
    Veteran edited April 11

    here's a picture of the equity spread post flop

    the advisers were right

  • mrfleming
    mrfleming
    Veteran edited April 28

    I'm now thinking it has to do with it being a multi-way pot. I'm up against four players. One or more of them is gonna have a diamond flush better than my 6d high. So I have to beat a flush with the next two cards. To beat a flush I need either two aces or an ace and 6. When I put my hand with the flop into the Winning Odds Calculator, then assign the four other players a range that is heavy on the suited side my equity drops to only 29% which is below the pot odds at 46%.

  • qattackq
    qattack
    New Poster edited May 1

    I don't know much about MTTs, but if this was a cash game and the pot was five-way, I would turbo-fold this hand.

    Your problem actually started preflop. This hand should have mucked preflop without any thought, as it is not suited and does not have a kicker. Unless you flop trip sixes, you can never be happy with your hand even headsup. If you flop an ace, anyone else with an ace will crush you.

    In the actual hand, a player thinks they are strong enough to bet into four other players. That infers that either your Ace is either badly beaten by this player already (most likely case) or they have a high diamond (probably the King). Not only this, but you have three other players to contend with. You have one player left behind you who has not yet acted.

    Note that players will virtually never bluff into four other players; on a mono-tone board such as this, they will never bluff into TWO other players. A bet by this player with an A7o would basically be a bluff in this situation as it is quite weak...so you can't even beat all possible bluffs. I would put an "average" player on AT or better (likely much better, as some players wouldn't bet AT here and they probably would have raised preflop with AQ or better).

    Even if this was a rainbow flop (three different suits), I would QUICKLY muck this hand after this pot-sized bet.

    Note also that this player is betting 1/3 of her remaining stack. In tournament play, this is HUGE.

    One final note: Your "equity" makes very little difference here. The problem is that you are never confident in your hand. That means you will either win a small pot (because you have no betting power) or lose a large one (as an opponent with a stronger hand such as a set or AK) can make increasingly larger bets and charge you a ton of money.

  • visualjcv
    visualjc
    Skimmer

    Here is my 2 cents: you have a lot of limpers and a lot of time that means someone taking a gamble on two suited cards, especially two suites connectors, so a flop like this has a good chance of hitting a flush. Second, the one player check-raised, which to me signifies nut flush. He flopped the nut flush but hoped someone with an Ax decides to bet, which is what happened. With the big re-raise I would suggest folding. Obvosily this is AI, but I have seen this in real life a hundred times.

  • cashgamejamesc
    cashgamejames
    Skimmer

    i definitely think you either try to isolate one of the limpers in front of you PREFLOP by raising pot. your hand is likely at the very top of the limpers range and if you get folds behind you'll have a limper in position to see the flop with a better hand, if not stealing a pretty nice pot without post flop action, if everyone folds to your open. that's a great spot to be in.

    what's not a good spot is wanting to play a family pot with a hand that plays terribly multiway; A6 offsuit, from middle position. if you flop top pair, you don't know if you're good. if you flop middle pair, you don't know if your good. the potential of flopping a nice draw isn't even there. you're basically gambling by limping here you're basically asking to flop 2 pair, 3 diamonds for the nut flush draw (like 2% chance of happening) or better.

    lay it down or raise preflop.

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