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Advisor advice on value betting
Hello, why do all 28 advisors say to check after the river when I have 61% equity in the hand against a single opponent? Wouldn't it be better to value bet in this scenario?
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Hi Vic,
There isn't any way to know without seeing the hand and the prior play - I'd guess there was probably a good reason if all 28 did the same thing, but there can be times they are off. It depends on the prior play of the hand and what your opponent thinks you have and your belief on how they will respond. If your opponent is likely to fold the lower portion of his range that you have beat and call most of the time when he has you beat, value betting is only value for your opponent.
I'd recommend you share specific hands in the "Specific Hand Questions" part of the forum when you have hands that you are wondering about. Then it is possible to see the entire play of the hand and evaluate things more precisely.
Allen
Thanks Allen, that makes sense. Here is the link: https://www.advancedpokertraining.com/poker/game.php?replay_id=169174&advisor_id=-1
Hi bigslickvic,
The advisors tell you to check because there are relatively few hands that you are beating that will call your River bet. Many more hands that call will beat your TT.
I'm new to APT and I don't know much about tournaments. But in (tough) cash mode, if you check in a similar situation, Villain seems to very rarely bet without having a better hand here than TT. Thus, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see advice (after a River check) of folding to a bet (assuming a standard tight opponent...I also haven't checked out various looser games). This is especially true because Villain won't want to risk her tournament life on a bluff with little chance of working.
Ask yourself, what did she raise on the Flop and call a Turn bet with? Flush draws (make up most of the range...all fold), an overpair (the only one you are beating now is 99), or a set. The latter, she would have almost surely raised on the Turn.
Maybe not totally correct analysis, but that's my take.
That's a very good explanation of it @qattack.
how would it be better for me to place a bet
@anthony123 what do you mean? It isn't better to place a bet in that scenario.
That was an interesting hand after watching. When villain raises flop with another player still to act before it gets back to you, she is showing a ton of strength. Her flatting your turn bet increases chances that she is on a draw, but can't totally narrow to that. The river six blanks the flush draw, completes a str8, plus possible turn call was stop and go play with trips or boat. Very tough board for one pair hand. Check/Fold mode isn't bad at all there.
I'm new to APT and I don't know much about tournaments. But in (tough) cash mode, if you check in a similar situation, Villain seems to very rarely bet without having a better hand here than TT. Thus, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see advice (after a River check) of folding to a bet (assuming a standard tight opponent...I also haven't checked out various looser games). This is especially true because Villain won't want to risk her tournament life on a bluff with little chance of working.