Hand Analysis #1 - NIT OR GREAT LAYDOWN?

mincasher
mincasher
Skimmer edited March 8 in Specific Hand Questions

Hello Pokerfriends,
today i have an interesting spot played in the microlimits at NL5.
We were put to the test on the turn an folded. Here is my postsession analysis:

First of all the Hand:
Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players [ZOOM]
Hero (SB): $9.24 (184.8 bb)
BB: $7.19 (143.8 bb)
UTG: $5.02 (100.4 bb)
MP: $2.32 (46.4 bb)
CO: $5.96 (119.2 bb)
BTN: $8.28 (165.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Ac Ah
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.48, BB folds, BTN calls $0.33

Flop: ($1.01) Qd 3h 6h (2 players)
Hero bets $0.65, BTN calls $0.65

Turn: ($2.31) Tc (2 players)
Hero bets $1.52, BTN raises to $7.15, Hero folds

Results: $5.35 pot ($0.22 rake)
Final Board: Qd 3h 6h Tc
Hero mucked Ac Ah and lost (-$2.65 net)
BTN mucked and won $5.13 ($2.48 net)

The Bigblind is an unknown player, who has 26VPIP/18PFR in 38 hands. (I dont include other stats because they dont tell us alot with this sample size.)

I constructed the following ranges for the Button:

Assumption: These hands call a 3bet and float the flop.
We are performing against his Turn Range like this:

When he goes AI. We can assume his range would be something like this.

Our performance is now much worse (and i even gave him 2 combos of overplayed AQo for balancing)

We have an overall equity of 38.07% on this one.
That means we have to call 5.63 $ to win a pot of 10.98 $, which leaves us with a minimum of 51% Equity needed.
Therefore we have a clear fold because we only have 38.07% Equity against his pushing range.

Thoughts:

We obviously can't always fold the top part of our range. It leaves us pretty exploitable. The decision i made was based on the fact, that i blocked most of his draws and TPTK hands with the Ah and Ac.

If we didn't block the Ah specifically, we might find a call in this spot, because villain can have tons of nut flush draws to semi bluff. Thats how i basically made the decision live at the table.

Problems:
We made the ranges based on an assumption.
It is still NL5 which means vs. a fish we could have gotten it in much wider, because fish generally overplay their TP hands in these kind of spots. But with no information we just assume average ranges.
We dont know if villain is calling threebets to setmine with lower pairs. It would be reasonable for him given stacksize, but its just one more assumption on our side..

Im very excited for your thoughts on this one.

Regards Chris

Comments

  • awiggi3a
    awiggi3
    New Poster
    Thanks for the neat and clear description of the action/though process.

    I would say a check might be appropriate on the turn for pot control. You have the ace of hearts so you block a lot of the most likely flush combos, so you’re not too worried about denying equity to flush draws. This in turn allows a check call on the flop, or check through and a check call on the river (keeping pot small as possible with only top pair). Alot of that is dependent on his bet size following your, which would give you a much clearer pic of where hes at.

    I would expect KQ of hearts to 3 bet the flop.

    Kj of hearts would reasonbly 3 bet the turn for the fold equity+plenty outs. Thats a semi bluff you’d be ahead that would warrant calling.

    10Jh is also a possible semi bluff, with both of your ranges being relatively wide with button on small blind action. Another thought that would warrant a call.

    I cant imagine floating with 1010 in that spot because the villain would have to think; “i get 3 bet on with 1010 pre. Q high flop. Im most likely at least behind kq-AA. I should just lay this down.”

    Also 1010 would probably 4 bet preflop, with both of you being late position with wider ranges. So i dont put him on 1010.

    I think he had Q10 suited. He could possibly have 66 or 33 but i would expect those hands to 3 bet the flop to build the pot on a wet board (meaning they’d he happy to play a big hand fast and end it on the flop). The turn 3 bet screams that he’s doesn’t want another card to come on that wet board because he has 2 pair or better.




    Overall i think i call/put him in for the rest of his change, because im thinking im beating a lot of his bluffs, semi bluffs,and also a lot of hands he believes he’s value betting with:

    KQ, KQh, KJh, AJo, AQ, 10Jh

    Nutted hands i DONT think he has in that spot (but could)

    Set of 10’s, 6’s, 3’s


    The only hand that i think he me be ahead with is Q10suited. And he still has more available semi bluffs thank he does nutted hands in his range.

    So im committed to that pot
  • celticgolfergc
    celticgolferg
    Skimmer edited March 23
    Great question and hand.

    My simple brain would have Villain opening much wider from button as that PFR includes all positions?

    My quick analysis of what I would see population playing has our range vs Villains as behind.


    These are hands from a roughly 36% starting range than a PFR of 18 could open from button, that could as a population call a 3Bet and not 4 bet, and continue after flop CBet assuming they continue with all queens, flush draws and sets.

    To jam the turn I’d imagine you are mainly seeing TPTK , Flush and combo draws, two pair and sets.

    I’d weigh more toward a set or two pair that doesn’t want to see another heart peel off as my nitty gut but there are plenty of draws that could also shove.

    Pictures would be MY perceived Hero vs villain jamming range give or take a few as sample is small

    1) Range vs range equity
    2) My SB 3B range
    3) Perceived jamming range that:
    Wouldn’t 4Bet PF + Villain range calling CBet call on flop then could jam turn (although I’d expect 66,33 to check raise a decent amount)

    Our hand itself I have at 65% ahead of that range

    I see it as a way ahead or crushed scenario.

    It’s a fold from me personally but a really tough spot
  • celticgolfergc
    celticgolferg
    Skimmer
    On a further note, we showed great strength with our 3B and firing two barrels OOP.

    I think villain is very strong here given the hand dynamics.
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