Hand Analysis #1 - NIT OR GREAT LAYDOWN?
Hello Pokerfriends,
today i have an interesting spot played in the microlimits at NL5.
We were put to the test on the turn an folded. Here is my postsession analysis:
First of all the Hand:
Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players [ZOOM]
Hero (SB): $9.24 (184.8 bb)
BB: $7.19 (143.8 bb)
UTG: $5.02 (100.4 bb)
MP: $2.32 (46.4 bb)
CO: $5.96 (119.2 bb)
BTN: $8.28 (165.6 bb)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Ac Ah
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.48, BB folds, BTN calls $0.33
Flop: ($1.01) Qd 3h 6h (2 players)
Hero bets $0.65, BTN calls $0.65
Turn: ($2.31) Tc (2 players)
Hero bets $1.52, BTN raises to $7.15, Hero folds
Results: $5.35 pot ($0.22 rake)
Final Board: Qd 3h 6h Tc
Hero mucked Ac Ah and lost (-$2.65 net)
BTN mucked and won $5.13 ($2.48 net)
The Bigblind is an unknown player, who has 26VPIP/18PFR in 38 hands. (I dont include other stats because they dont tell us alot with this sample size.)
I constructed the following ranges for the Button:
Assumption: These hands call a 3bet and float the flop.
We are performing against his Turn Range like this:
When he goes AI. We can assume his range would be something like this.
Our performance is now much worse (and i even gave him 2 combos of overplayed AQo for balancing)
We have an overall equity of 38.07% on this one.
That means we have to call 5.63 $ to win a pot of 10.98 $, which leaves us with a minimum of 51% Equity needed.
Therefore we have a clear fold because we only have 38.07% Equity against his pushing range.
Thoughts:
We obviously can't always fold the top part of our range. It leaves us pretty exploitable. The decision i made was based on the fact, that i blocked most of his draws and TPTK hands with the Ah and Ac.
If we didn't block the Ah specifically, we might find a call in this spot, because villain can have tons of nut flush draws to semi bluff. Thats how i basically made the decision live at the table.
Problems:
We made the ranges based on an assumption.
It is still NL5 which means vs. a fish we could have gotten it in much wider, because fish generally overplay their TP hands in these kind of spots. But with no information we just assume average ranges.
We dont know if villain is calling threebets to setmine with lower pairs. It would be reasonable for him given stacksize, but its just one more assumption on our side..
Im very excited for your thoughts on this one.
Regards Chris
Comments
I think villain is very strong here given the hand dynamics.