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don't be too quick to fold

edited March 2019 in Specific Hand Questions

An enjoyable hand that I somehow played correctly and then post-analyzed with Flopzilla. Opening UTG with an ATo is not a good idea but balanced play would have you at least trying every once in a while, or using it situationally. Limping in UTG, also not recommended but could have been interpreted as slow played strength. I get lucky and everyone limped as well, so nice pot. The flop comes 6d, Kd, Qd: I have a nut flush draw (9 outs) a draw to pairing my ace (3 outs) and a draw for a jack to fill the inside straight (4 outs). This equals 16 outs times rule of 4 equals 64% equity. So, a half pot bet is for value and protection. The MP1 quadruples my bet and MP2 doubles his bet. I’m thinking they paired up with a king or a queen or have an ace and are likely very encouraged by having the Jd, Td or 9d. Neither of them would have limped in preflop with aces, queens, kings or jacks. I take them off all pairs at this point based on their preflop limps. Perhaps their strategy is to push me off because I’m out of position and I entered with a limp. I find the courage to go all in with my remaining $610, MP1 folds and MP2 calls.The turn is a brick and so is the river. Miraculously I win with ace high. MP2 had a big stack and could afford to try for filling his open-ended straight draw, or showing down with a jack high flush, both failed. I’m now the big stack


  • hasenh

    So why didn't you fear one of the raisers had made his flush already on the flop? I would have folded there and then on that basis.

  • mrfleming
    edited March 2019

    @hasen said:
    So why didn't you fear one of the raisers had made his flush already on the flop? I would have folded there and then on that basis.

    I'm always fearful but I had the Ace of diamonds so I was hoping for the nut flush, and possibilities such as filling the straight or pairing my ace. Risky yes, but a calculated risk. My coach was John Horton and he advised against the fold, which made me curious, because like you, I would have been put off by three diamonds on the board. Horton woke me up to all the possible outcomes and so I went for it. I would have never thought about including the possibility of wining with Ace high! Then, afterwards, I decided to analyse with an odds calculator, which reinforced Horton's advice. I don't always find the adviser to be correct but it is good that they make you stop and think.

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