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68o All in??? I just don't understand

edited December 2018 in Specific Hand Questions

Why are all 28 advisors telling me to go all-in here?


  • pgearan

    Down to 7 big blinds UTG is, for many, an auto-shove with any two cards. In this situation, I'll often not even look at my cards and shove. Maybe because this is such a shallow stack tournament at this point for everyone the thinking would change a bit, but getting hit by the blinds and being down to 5-5.5x is really putting yourself in a bind. The whole table being in shove mode means after the blinds, you'll be facing having to call all-ins likely with marginal hands (likely around 50% equity or much less). At least here when you shove with 7x you have fold equity - and you almost got there, only the SB called you.

    You got very unlucky that the hand the opponent had shared one of your cards, so that left you with only 30% equity. But even in that scenario, if you had say a 30% chance of everyone folding and then a 30% chance of winning the other 70% of time, you are at about 51% in this hand to either get the blinds or nearly, or fully, double up. If the opponent had called you with A7o instead of A6 you would have had 40% equity then you'd be at about 58% for your shove to be favorable for you.

    As you stack dwindles your fold equity does as well. So going from 7 to 5 blinds, if you went through the blinds agina, makes things very tough. If you are going to cash in this tournament, you likely need a double up soon and/or keep stealing blinds to stay afloat.

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