I wanted to call. The peculiar play,instinct, and because I had a diamond weren't enough so I folded. I'm not concerned about being bluffed. That's going to happen.
The question:Is there a thought process which leads to call? Or is it a fold because a fold is correct so often that its not a mistake long term? @kristak @1warlock
@highfive - this is actually a cool hand to look over so thanks for posting it. I could write a book on this one even though it may look simple to some. I can make a good argument for calling here, being given 3.3:1 on a call but in all honesty my line diverges from yours on the flop. I'm not sure if its best to go ahead and break the hand down now or ask you to go through your thoughts all the way through first. My answer may not be relevant to you because we obviously would have approached it differently pretty early on. So, do you want to share your thought process 1st or do you want me to give my analysis 1st?
Yes. I 3 bet TT quite often. We'll go with 80%. 4x is a standard OOP size for me sometimes more.
Getting a call i like. I can narrow Hull Bot's range to AQ - mid pair type hand.
I use a polarized cbetting strat. I bet qq here and 54s. I check middling hands that can't handle a raise. This qualifies as a check.
I balance by checking strong at times say QJ here.
So check/check. Maybe I should lead small on the turn. With Jx I would since I dont think he has a Q with no flop bet. In position i likely bet turn with 2 checks to me.
Check bet call. Standard sequence. Check river. Then Hull Bot bets. I was perplexed as i was expecting check back.
Board paired and flush comes in.
My first reaction was " I think I'm good here."
Hovered over the call button.
Then ran thru J , 6 , flush or bluff.
Then I convinced myself that although my spidey sense is saying call and my diamond blocker, mostly i am not good here so grrrrr folded.
Yes, we definitely look at hands differently some times. This is good as I learn a lot from your analyses.
Short-handed I am 100% on board with a 3-bet from the SB with this hand. I'm never flatting here with TT and giving the BB a good price to come along. Too vulnerable a hand and I'm happy if I can get the IR to fold with any frequency. I understand your C-betting strategy and I use something similar myself when I'm the initial raiser. My C-bet plan of action when I've 3-bet is something else though.
So, in your spot here I would C-bet this flop with my almost my entire range. I particularly like a c-bet here because you can credibly represent all overpairs and top 2 sets. He has bottom 2 sets (assuming he's not like me and doesn't 4-bet JJ). His value-raising range on this flop is severely limited to JJ, 66 and QJ while you are blocking much of his semi-bluff range (AT, KT, 9/T). Therefore, if you are raised you can sigh-fold much of the time. In addition, you have plenty of ways to pick up equity on the turn in case he does call you. Any A, K 9 or 8 brings in straight draws that you can continue to barrel on.
Lastly, I like the c-bet if you are weighting his range to many middling pairs. Does the bot continue with 22-99 here? Maybe to 1 bet but these bots are so nitty that I would guess they fold at least half the time with those holdings with 2 overcards. I want to deny equity to all of this range, along with any Ax combos that picked up backdoor flush draws on this flop. My thoughts are you get enough folds from the c-bet to make it profitable and you have enough ways to improve or bluff if called. His raising range is small enough and value-weighted enough for me to make a tight fold if I have to.
If you checked the flop then I'd lead the turn. The paired 6 is a good card for you. You've somewhat discounted villain having a Q or a J with no bet on the flop. Yes, he still has some but with reduced frequency now. You know he doesn't have KK or AA so TT is almost certainly good here. The 6 is also a good card for you because you can extract value from all Ax hands he would likely call with here. Ax is oftentimes good on a paired board and people are folding less Ax hands on boards like this one lately, especially with no c-bet on the flop. He may feel he's good some % of the time. You also get to charge for all his diamond draws with a bet here. Lastly, his 2-pair hands that he flatted with are now forfeited to an overpair or he has to worry about kickers. I could find a fold to a raise here though as I'm beating nothing and his bluffing range is severely restricted.
Your check on the turn opened the door for villain. What is he repping here? He has very few 6's in his range so he has a pair, a diamond draw, AdXx he intends to bluff with if the flush draw fills or nada. I call here as well and look to reevaluate on the river. The 3d is interesting on the river and bot plays it well. He has to know his 22 isn't good when he was called on the turn and so now has a good card to bluff on. The paired board limits your ability to shove on him even if you do have a flush so this is a good play. You have to decide how much of his story makes sense now. I go back and forth on this one as I think about it. How many times does he have 6x or the flush? Most of his AdXd combos are blocked by you or the board and he doesn't have AdKd. Jx is checking back I'd think.
I call the river. Given the previous streets action, if he shows me a 6 or the flush, so be it. There isn't anything else that I think he'd bet for value so I'm over-weighting his bluffing range and making the call.
Sorry for the rambling approach. My line is so different from yours that its hard for me to play the turn and river this way. I'd prefer the bet-bet-check/call or fold line or bet-bet-bet lines than check-check-check. At the very worst I'm setting the price and not facing what could be larger bets from the villain this way.
BTW - I may be significantly off in my lines. I'm doing all my hand analysis work without using software to force myself to think them through without knowing the answer.
Some of it expected. Some with merit but debatable. Some expanded my thinking. Nice!
Expected the cbet into perceived range comment. I did think of that at the time. Initial cbet or delayed cbet likely wins the pot.
So many cards to improve is true but I'm not sure if that means bet or makes me more comfortable check calling. I will think that over.
I was a little surprised you agreed with my 3bet. You may not be as tight as I thought.
And now it occurs to me, " what 6 does he have here? 66? No. That's a flop bet. Guess i should have discounted 6s.
You expanded my thinking about my blockers too. He doesn"t ATd. I have that. Not KQd. Thats a flop bet. He doesn't have hardly any flushes. Td is blocking much more than occurred to me. And my TT is blocking a big portion of his continuing range.
You are correct. This is a " show it to me" call.
Lastly I would say that my check call strat did induce 2 more bets. I just didn't think enough about the call. Or I didn't have the 'nads to call.
Me tight? Wow, if you only knew. I've had to tone down my aggression a lot since I started playing online because the competition is so much stronger than live. In all honesty my preflop game is pretty loose but I've learned how to manage postflop pretty well. I can go all TAG when I need to but I prefer being able to show up with nearly anything and being called light more often,. As long as my frequencies are good, I get paid a lot more with my big hands than most people do. Learning how to make the right folds was key. Now I have to temper myself because you cant hide from the data online, except on anonymous sites (which I love).
I'm curious to hear what part of my breakdown you disagreed with. I'm not 100% on some of it and would like to hear your thoughts where I was weak in my analysis. I'm glad some of it seemed to be helpful.
I have always thought that hand analysis was the best way to study the game. Deep thought about almost any hand helps me tremendously because I seem to retain the information much better than if I just run it through a solver. I wish there were more people here who would participate because I think that would make this site a ton more valuable to all of us.
BTW - I've started donking around with the KGB bots on both cash and SnG's. Yipes, they make some really horrible decisions. Some are actually quite good and have done excellent jobs bluffing me. None have managed to slow-play me and most of them I can just wrench pots away from too frequently. I think they need an update to play more like its 2018 and not 2008. What are you seeing from them? Have any adjusted well to you yet?
I don't know that I disagreed with any portion notably. Just different styles. I know 3bet and check is unusual but my cbet strat takes precedence. I could be blown off my equity with a bluff raise and barrel or with a value raise. True maybe the cbet wins the initial 3bet pot. Maybe i should have been ok with that. My check check did induce more value but I wasn't good enough to call it off.
Your in depth range analysis helped me eliminate 6s.
My error was not properly or fully ranging Villain. I already eliminated Q. Then if I eliminate 6s, his range is weighted towards bluffs and I call.
Its a weird bluff because I find mostly the Bots check back made hands. How does he know I dont have the flush? How does he know I didnt check/ call a set?
If he thinks i called with A high, why not check back?
I 'll return later with KGB bot reads.
@highfive - Sideways? That thing went sideways, went into a ditch, flipped over and caught fire. Just WTF?
I can see a delayed c-bet here. Just a different line and limits some of the hands you could bluff with but its certainly a reasonable way to go. I think the turn check-call just opened the barn door. Looks like you wanted to get to showdown as cheaply as possible. The only strong part of your range you would check-call instead of check-raise would be JJ and QQ. Otherwise you have the straight and flush draws to consider and you probably wouldn't be giving cheap looks at another card. Maybe with some frequency but the 2 checks and a call looks weak more than it looks like strength to me and probably to the bot. Your check-call could have some Ax hands, but would also contain many less than top pair hands. If I'm in the bots shoes, I need to bet any good card on the river to fold out almost your entire range. Hard to call with less than top pair there I'd think. Also, his bet size needed to work less than 25% of the time to be profitable so I think its a good move.
Is it possible he was value-owning himself by betting into the nuts? Sure but a very small % of the time. A really strong player I've come to know said that if you aren't value-owning yourself sometimes you aren't bluffing enough.
Look forward to hearing your thoughts on the bots.
So then I said ok and started opening 10x pre. It only eliminated 1 caller. Lol
It was like a plo flip. What do i have and who won? Guess my peak was 250 bb up and trough was 400 bb down. Ended at around 125 bb up. Wild and funny session.
But there are weird folds (and calls) by the bots. Once I 3bet squeezed from the button with 64h. Got 2 folds. Cutoff, the caller, folded JJ. Haha
One other time I raised QQ, faced a 3bet, and called. Flop comes J T 9 rainbow. I lead. Get raised. ( me: ok lets do it ) I come back over the top. Villain Folds.
Any guess what he had?........??
Villain folded a SET OF JACKS!
So yeah. Bizarro World next exit.
i just see this and i surprised you ask - me a complete rookie - ty
i sure would like to know size of Dougs usual opening raises
the Doug $15 seems low, so he has something likely a speculative hand, less than AQ or a premium pair?
your $60 re-raise is right on, enough to likely get the SB out and test Doug see how good his hand is plus you out of posn and need take control
now likely Doug knows you have a decent hand, would you have bet differently with AA KK QQ JJ? probably not... so he must be puzzled
Doug just calls the flop, isnt pros strategy bet into the raiser? so is he trapping you or he have squat?
i would have definitely C bet the flop, 3/4 size of pot... consider what Doug think you have, any premium pair AA KK QQ JJ kills him and his Ax or maybe a straight draw
your check, says you nervous/weak, gives him a free card draw to a straight & invites him come after the pot now....
he doesn't come after the pot, after your check (i would have) and checks
Doug bets the turn, $102 what he representing a 6??? he got A6?
your option is to fold or re-raise huge... what you goin do on river? you call he bets again, you have 2 outs.. i would fold
i think the $102 call is wasted monies
anyway thats my opinion ... what i would have done - but thats probably why i always lose my money hahaha
ty askin me
(ps. sorrie i no read all your discussion it so late ... runs to bed)
Having not read through the entire discussion above, these thoughts will probably be redundant.
Regarding pre-flop, IMO, you have two choices, call or re-raise. My choice would depend quite a bit on my read of the mid-late position raiser (Hull). If I decide to just flat call with 10-10, I commit to playing it like any small pair out of position for the rest of the hand, hoping to flop a set and folding if/when multiple overcards come and I get bet into. If I decide to re-raise, I commit to playing it like A-A or K-K. All-in-all, re-raising with the 10-10 is probably the preferable move against the range of most opponents in Hull's position.
Choosing the pre-flop re-raise, I would definitely follow through and bet the flop with a 1/2 to 2/3 pot bet. With two overcards having hit, I need to do something to gain information still relatively cheaply. At least the bet on the flop would make it much more difficult for an opponent to continue with a pocket pair (other than 6-6) below my 10-10. So, if I get called on the flop, I skew my opponent's hands strongly toward a range better than mine.
So, personally, I find the check on the flop weird and constraining with respect to what I could do on the turn. Once you check the flop (assuming opponent checks behind like Hull did), you could only - IMO - really represent exactly Q-Q or J-J by checking the flop and betting the turn. But since you did check the flop, I would think that you have to bet the turn representing just that, having turned the boat and now not being able to wait any longer in trying to make something from it (maybe you get opponent holding J-x to fold to that line). The check the flop, check the turn to me (were I Hull) would represent either exactly what you have (a third pair pocket pair) or A-K. When the low diamond comes on the end, it is very unlikely to have helped you, which gives me (playing Hull) more reason to bluff bet the river (if I hold weak) or bet for value (if I have 2nd pair or better).
If I've bet the flop and the second 6 comes on the turn, I can't legitimately represent (having re-raised pre-flop and bet the flop) that it helps me (outside of the chance that I picked up a flush draw if I were holding exactly Ad-Kd). At this point I would have to assess whether I think opponent could get to this point with something like A-J or K-J suited and would fold to a second barrel on the turn representing A-A, K-K, or maybe A-Q. I probably at that point check-fold the turn if opponent demonstrates strength by betting into me on the turn, going with my read that he only gets there by being well ahead and me only having two outs on the river to catch up.
Best case, after re-raising pre-flop and getting called, betting the flop and getting called, I'm hoping to just check it down at that point.