6max 100BB stacks:
UTG raises 3xBB everyone folds and I call with QJcc OTB.
Flop comes Q62hh - UTG checks I check
Turn 9o - UTG checks I bet 2/3 pot UTG calls.
River 8 - UTG checks I bet 3/4 pot and UTG snap all ins for 3X POT.
Thoughts? What is the best hand you fold here?
Bump- no love on this hand?
I was giving this some thought but before responding would like to know suits for cards dealt to board. Thanks.
Qhearts 6hearts 2spades 8diamonds 9clubs
Oops I meant 9 and then 8 not 8 then 9 lol. Sorry!
I'm trying to put myself in the mind of the other player at these stakes and having a hard time of it. You show up at the river with top pair and kicker problems. I'm checking back this one in your spot since he called the turn bet - nothing that I beat can call and nothing ahead of me can fold. I think someone else may be better at breaking this hand down for you but my RADAR is saying he picked up the open ended straight draw on the turn and made the nuts on the river. At these stakes, when someone jams in this spot, they mostly have it.
Sorry I'm not more help tonight. I'm stuck on seeing this guy with J10s (not hearts) - I know that isn't the way we're supposed to analyze things here but I cant find anything else that makes sense with the lines that were taken. I can't see him with top pair or an over pair because all TP+ combos he'd open with would bet the flop. So no 1 pair hands he can have show up here and no 2 pair hands jam here. He can't have any sets given the lines taken either so I can't come up with any hand that fits other than J10s.
How about he has pocket 99? Would explain flop check, turn call and river shove?
I thought about pocket 9's but wouldn't he bet that flop with only 1 over-card and that pesky flush-draw out there? I know I would. Even if he had picked up the set on the river, why would he shove here? Hero bet the turn, possibly representing the straight draw and it filled on the river. If I made a set in this spot, I'd either throw out a blocking bet on the river (and hope I'm not jammed on) or check-call. Villain may be a poor player but playing 99 this way doesn't make a ton of sense to me. I went back over what Alex Fitzgerald and James Sweeney said about these spots at these stakes and I think both would also lean towards thinking villain had picked up the nuts here.
You're absolutely right, 1warlock. 99 doesn't fit. JT (especially of heart) certainly could work here, although hero has a jack, which means that there's only 12 combinations of JT left in the deck (and only one JhTh hand). But how about AA or QQ? KK may be a possibility too but I would expect the villain to bet the flop to protect against another heart or an ace coming on the turn and making it a difficult situation. Slow playing AA on this flop would be a little tricky but he may have tried a check raise here. QQ is a stronger contender. Slow plays the flopped set, flat calls the turn and shoves the river. Of course there's only one combo of queens left in the deck so that makes this possibility very limited, but not impossible. Anyway, probably the strongest hand I would fold would be 2 pairs, but I'm a fairly conservative player so I may not be a good reference. I don't think i would fold a set. I'm curious though, why didn't you bet that flop? If you get raised it's an easy fold and if you get called you can slow down the action on the next street. Also, I personally would not have been as aggressive on the turn with such a weak holding. What were you trying to represent? A set of 9? If so, a call from the villain certainly means a very strong hand. Anyway, just my humble thoughts.