As of November 2021, the APT Forum is closed to new posts. Like with many online forums, usage has decreased in recent years. All previous posts are still available.

I am confused as to how the percentages are calculated in the Advice section.

Best Answers

  • 1warlock
    1warlock
    edited May 2018 Answer ✓

    Your equity is just the percentage of times you expect to win the hand at showdown vs opponents holdings. It changes with every street, with hands having the narrowest gaps pre-flop and expanding to maximum after the river. For example, 7/2o is expected to win vs AKs about 30% of the time so your equity if you are holding 7/2o preflop and you know your opponent has AKs is 30%. As cards come out on the flop, turn and river, your equity changes. So, if a 7 comes on the flop and the AKs hand does not improve, the equity of 7/2o goes up to about 70%. Once the river is dealt, 1 hand will have 0% equity and the other will have 100% (assuming not identical hands).

    So basically pot equity is just the share of the pot that "belongs to you" at any given moment, based on how likely it is that your holdings will win at showdown.

    The equity figures shown here are for your specific hand vs any other players specific hand. This is a good starting point but you will want to think about your hand vs another players range at some point and then on to your range vs their range. You can practice estimating equities and equity evolution using equilab's equity trainer if you want.

  • 1warlock
    1warlock
    edited May 2018 Answer ✓

    @lumberjack said:
    How are the equity percentages determined?

    On this site, because the program has the ability to "see" both hands, it simply sums up the probabilities of all possible outcomes. For a simple example, lets say you have 2 suited connected cards (6h/7h) and your opponent has an overpair to your cards (JsJd). Preflop your hand would show 22.14% equity. This is the sum of all probabilities that you will draw cards to improve over your opponents holdings.

    In this case it would be the probability of making a flush (on either flop turn or river), plus the probability of drawing to a straight, plus the probability of drawing to trips or quads, plus P of drawing to 2 pair. It will also calculate the possible reductions to equity, such as the times your opponent draws to trips over your trips, draws to a flush, a straight, have a 2nd board pair forfeiting your 2 pair ...

    So its just the sum of all probabilities from the point in the hand queried onwards. To calculate all of this at the table is impossible and so we use estimates. In the above example, lets say on the flop we haven't paired either of our hole cards and neither did he. No possible straight draws presented themselves either. 2 hearts are on the flop though. In this case, all we really have going for us is the flush draw but if we make the flush, we are almost certainly winning the hand. After the flop, we have approximately a 35% chance of making our flush so we would estimate our equity as 35%+. Because we still have the unlikely outcomes of going runner runner for trips or 2 pair we should add in another ~4%, bringing our estimated equity to just shy of 40%.

    I'm sorry this isn't an easy answer but I want to be precise. The formula is simple but because there are so many possible outcomes, doing the math manually is cumbersome. The best thing to do is to gain an understanding of the concept and then basically memorize the estimated equities for the most likely situations (overcards to a pair, suited connected cards to 2 uncoordinated overcards, ...) This is why I suggested downloading equilab and practicing with the equity trainer. Its free and once you understand what is being calculated, you will quickly pick up the rough estimations and be able to recall them for use at the table.

    One of the most important things to remember when considering equity is that it is only a valid number if you see all the remaining cards and reach showdown. You should not consider the odds of making your flush to be 35% on just the turn (or river) because you would then overpay to see each card. Equity is important when considering pot odds but they are not the same thing unless facing an all-in situation.

Answers

Sign In to comment.