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What would I push here?

edited January 2018 in Specific Hand Questions

I'm not sure why all 28 advisors say to go all in with this hand in this position. I am utg +2 with 9268 stack blinds are 800 and 1600 with 150 ante- I still have two hands before blinds. I chose to fold and the next hand had a J7 suited which I pushed with. I realize you have to have a 10 or 5 to make a straight, but this didn't make sense to me


  • pgearan

    With only 6 big blinds and both previous players folding to you, it may well be any two cards time, although certainly some shove-fold charts would be more conservative. Like you did, I have found the advisors pretty uniform in this. Seems like they view the UTG and UTG+1 folds as the more critical factor in the decision.

    The problem in waiting (whether here or in live games) is that other players seeing a UTG or UTG+1 shove usually view that for what it often is with a small stack, a desperation move, and of course you have 1 or 2 more hands behind you who can wake up with a hand and in this situation you are only facing 5 hands . Even if you get called by a fairly strong range - all pairs, big aces, suited broadway cards - you still have a shade under 30% equity. Pair that with the fold equity you have in this situation, it's likely a profitable play. When I put 10-5 off into the odds calculator ( against one of the strong ranges, I get 29.6% equity. When I put J7 suited in we get up to 35.6%. So absolutely an improvement with the hand you had UTG+1 (and not a bad example as that is about an average random holding), but how much fold equity have you lost waiting a hand and adding a player to act behind you and potentially opening up the calling range? And you run the risk of the UTG player waking up with a hand and raising in effect taking away any fold equity you have.

    Interesting factor as well is that you don't have a lot of big stacks behind you except for that 55K one. Most players can't afford to lose 9K to you without an impact and each likely would rather be the aggressor if they are getting a decent portion of their stack in.

  • Dlynn58D

    Thanks for the explanation, it helps.

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