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Bet sizing tell on the turn

edited January 2018 in Specific Hand Questions

Having fun at Mid Level play


  • pgearan

    So is your thinking here that the Villian betting over 70% of the pot on the turn is tell that he is bluffing and betting on the larger side to push you off the hand?

    Your raise on the turn is interesting because it helps really define where you are. With only $1420 on top, the Villian is getting nearly 3 to 1 on a call, so your raise looks more like a value raise. If he is bluffing or even has a low pair, he folds as he did. If he has an overpair he may shove and then you can easily fold and have not invested a ton with your turn bet. Given how often you will win the hand you still have good equity even with the times you lose.

    Now, the Villian calling your raise is the least likely action think, but what if he does and then checks the river. Assuming you have not hit your A or 10 what do you do? Do you fire another barrel hoping small pairs that have not hit the board fold? Just check down and give up the hand? You don't have a lot of show down value except if he is on a straight draw, or turn flush draw I guess, so if you don't bet you likely are giving up the hand. If you do bet, given he only has about pot left in his stack, do you shove? Obviously some of that may be dictated by what card came on the river, but interested in your general take.

  • cerberus

    Really good question. While playing it in real time I didn't even consider villain calling. I thought he would shove 2 pair plus hands and fold all draws out, even to a small raise. I guess I need to prepare for all outcomes before raising. Now, if card comes that doesn't change the action (low card blank) I'm probably giving up and hoping Villain got sticky with TJ or 67. Villain definitely can call turn raise if those hands are clubs. Villain is also continuing with A5cc and A9cc. In a live setting a villain would flat my raise with an overpair a % of the time, but the bots in this game usually shove. TT-JJ might flat. I might try to barrel if a K or Q comes and villain checks, but think I'm ending aggression after getting called most of the time.

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