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A bit of a classic for me...river call?
This is a spot I struggle with - I have TPTK on a non-threatening board. I think calling the turn is a no-brainer...what about the river?
Well, the way i see it, he plays preflop the way that shiuld maybe give u the idea of him having a hand of the range of maybe 1010-QQ, AQ or something. With AA or KK he wouldve been more aggressivr i think.
So on the flop, you are ahead, so there i would have made a good raise. Maybe hed have folded i dont know.
After the flop, well, bad luck for you. I dont know if you should have folded there.
Just my quick thiughts, my main point: i think you shiuld have been more aggressive on the flop and we would maybe have avoided the bad luck on the turn
A small nit-picking point here that probably wouldn't have made a difference in this hand - your bet sizing preflop was a just bit light. 3x the open raise + the dead money might be a bit better than just 3x the open raise. 10,500 is a little better than 9,000. It would give him 2:1 calling odds instead of the 2.25:1 calling odds you gave him.
I'm with you guys, the situation on the turn was tough. The third spade on the turn was a bad card for you and coupled with Villian's continued strong action it looks like your AK TPTK has been demoted to bluff catcher. However, laying it down on the turn seems too tight, doesn't it? And when the brick comes out on the river and Villian fires a third barrel you're really in a bind. Calling this river looks like throwing good money after bad, but folding looks like you wasted money when you called the turn.
Villian's play of A3s is noteworthy. His preflop open was speculative. His play after you 3-bet him seems very aggressive. He called your 3-bet and then opened the betting on the flop with his dominated pair of aces. In my mind that would send up a red flag because the AI's on KGB Dungeon adjust to your play. They may have analyzed your postflop play as too passive.
This TPTK facing action on a non-threatening board is an interesting situation that seems to come up frequently enough to be a major leak if misplayed. I'd love to get some more thoughts from others on this...
I am not really sure I'd consider that flop to be a non-threatening board. Certainly, if Steve is playing AT there, he has Hero crushed already. That is also true of TT and 99. I think all three of those hands are squarely in Steve's range, based on the open raise and then calling the three-bet. I am a little less concerned with A9 or T9, although maybe either is possible suited. But without Steve hitting anything on the flop, there are two draws out there that would be of concern to me. The T9 on the board puts all of his JQK combos in play. And the two spades on board, including the ace, could give him a four-flush. And with the ace out there, the K or even the Q or J of spades is a strong card. There are a good few hands in Steve's range there that would give him a pair and a draw or some kind of combo straight and flush draw.
The mitigating factor, to me, is the donk bet from Steve on the flop. That decreases the chances that he has one of the hands that already has me crushed. I think he checks 99 there and waits for me to put some money in the pot. I always feel that opponents are giving out free information when they donk bet. Here, I think he is telling me that he caught some part of the flop, but not the nuts. He wants to see if he can take it down here, because he is more concerned about me drawing out on him than he is about trying to get a cheap/free card himself. So now I am suspicious that he has a weak ace, or possibly some sort of Broadway hand with a ten. It is worth noting that, if he is playing a weak ace, he probably has no spades.
I'm obviously not going anywhere. My only question is whether I want to just call and see the turn or put him to the test with a raise. I lean toward doing the later here. I have a pretty good, but not definite, idea that I am ahead. But the turn could muddy the waters considerably. If I am right about him having a weak ace, any low/medium card on the turn could be deadly for me, and I might not even know it. And if I do see the third spade, or a broadway card, and he bets out again, I have to start questioning whether he might have the straight or flush draws. I think I have a decent chance of either taking it down here or giving myself a favorable position on the turn, with more information. If he does call, he might check the turn. If he doesn't, I can get away cheaper than calling him on three streets.
So as I am typing that, I am thinking I want to raise. Then I notice his stack size, which puts me in a spot. A solid raise might entice him to shove, as opposed to a player with a bigger stack just calling. Given my stack dominance, I might actually opt to shove myself here to exert maximum pressure on him to fold. If I just raise, I am probably going to have to call on the turn or river if he ships it, even if he just calls now. And really, that is mostly true if I just call.
I think I raise all-in on the flop. As played, I'd win it if he folds and lose it if he doesn't. But I'd be pretty happy for the money to go in with me having him so dominated before the turn comes.