Selbst is scary good. Selbst had AsAd .. Bauman had 7h7d . Flop comes Ac 7c 5c . Selbst bets, Bauman calls. Turn is 7s. Selbst bets, Bauman calls. River is 4d. Selbst bets big Bauman re-raises to set Vanessa all in.
In her commentary, Selbst stated she knew she was up against one of two hands. Quads or 7's full of aces. In fact, Selbst said that if she had two red A's in her hand, she would have folded. In the end, she could not fold her Aces full. She called and was eliminated.
I am absolutely sure that Selbst narrowed Bauman's hand to either quads or 7's full of aces. And when she said she would have folded if she was holding two red A's, I believe her. SCARY GOOD player.
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Yes. I was incredibly impressed with her analysis. When she first said "I just need to check the suits of my cards" I honestly had no idea what she was talking about. Wish they had been red, because I would have loved to see her go deep!
I'll have to admit that I'm stumped here. This is a fascinating hand, rich in complexity and fun to evaluate. But I just cannot see how having Ah paired with her Ad instead of As changes the analysis. Any small difference in the probability that Bauman had pocket sevens as opposed to A7 because the suits that dropped on the streets seems like it would be diluted into irrelevance by the vagaries of human behavior. I would think this would be true even when analyzing the actions of a professional player like Bauman.
To "stumped": Check your APT advisers. In a 9 or 6 handed game almost none of them recommend calling an single opening raiser with A7 offsuit except in a big blind vs small blind matchup. Some call with A7 suited and all will call with 77. I would think that difference is not irrelevant to professional player.
For people who aren't familiar with the hand:
As to "irrelevance", it was far from it. There were only 2 possible holdings Baumann could have had as offsuit A7 doesn't see the flop. Baumann isn't some 1/2NL donkey, she's a quality pro. She's never flatting A7o to an UTG+1 open except in the BB. This was very early in the Main Event and everyone is ultra-deep-stacked. Play tends to be tight at this stage - even tighter than normal because of the setting.
Anyway, because Selbst narrowed it down to A7s or 77, she made the call and busted out of the tournament. I agree with @TrooGrit here - Selbst is one of the best players in the world. Her ability to dissect hands and situations is superior to almost everyone else's.
ty warlock show the video makes it easier understaned
You are very welcome. I watched this hand so many times I have it memorized. Selbst is just brilliant and Baumann is no slouch herself. Being able to dissect this hand in real time with this much on the line is amazing to me. The fact that she actually thought about getting away from Aces-full is mind blowing to me. Almost anyone other than elite players would have been rejoicing as they called and only then figured out what had happened to them.
If you get the chance, watch Selbst's play on YouTube. She is one of the absolute best in the game at extracting value from her opponents. I mean she gets in value bets so thin that most other players would simply check and hope for showdown. This is what makes her stand out from almost every other player in the world.
yes i did thanks ... yehhh GIRL POWER!!!