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Probability of hand winning if held to showdown?


Does anyone know if a study was done that shows how often a particular hand would win if it was dealt and held until showdown? For me personally it would be beneficial to see statistically how much weaker 27o is to AA and all hands in between.



  • apt_gs

    An app like PokerStove or PokerCruncher can answer that question. PokerCruncher is an incredible app.

  • jalcockj

    Looks cool, I'll get it. Thanks!

  • nytider

    When you look at an equity calculator, the number it gives you for pre-flop is the number you are asking for. There is a good one on this site that lets you calculate your equity against any number of specific hands or ranges of hands. So if you setup your 72o against AA, you'd get that it is 12.5% to win. That means that it will win, on average, one out of every eight tries. The calculation factors in both players holding their hands to showdown.

    Of course, the reality of the situation is that you have less equity than that with the 72o, due to the fact that you won't be able to hold it to showdown every time. In fact, unless you flop two pair or a set, you'll almost always be folding before you see the last two cards.

    The equity calculators can show this as well. You can pick up equity, or lose equity, depending on the cards that come out on the flop, and on subsequent streets. For example, if our flop is 778, in the example above, we're now a winner seven out of eight times, and we probably would hang around to showdown. But if the flop is T3K, we go down to less than 1 in 50 tries.

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