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Nice problem...
So...flop a flush draw + oesd and end up felting my villain. BUT more by luck than skill.
Step 1 - re-raise on flop, villain calls
Step 2 - turn is a brick followed by ‘panic-shove’ from me.
Step 3 hit card on river.
All well and good but I’m really clueless with these draws, especially OOP.
Should I shove on flop?
Should I just check turn and wait for river?
Thanks
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Comments
You were actually in position on that hand. I think I'd probably have played it a bit differently, but there is no arguing with your results. First, I think I'd probably raise at least a little more than you did pre-flop. Maybe it is just me, but I don't typically min-raise anywhere. But if I can't justify at least 2.5X UTG, I force myself to fold it. I am probably raising to 3000 there, but that probably doesn't change anything about the hand as played. I just feel that it gives me a better chance of folding out junky hands in the blinds that might get a good price and then hit something with which they can blind-side me.
On the flop, I think I am inclined to call. I have a great draw. I count fifteen outs. I have good implied odds. But I think I would like to see another card for the price my opponent has already set. And if I don't hit my draw on the turn, perhaps the smaller pot size, making his turn bet likely to be smaller, will allow me to see a river before having to commit my whole stack. The risk I run with that is that he will be able to get away from it if it becomes obvious that a draw has hit that I may have.
Personally, I don't think the other option you mentioned is a bad play either, shoving on the flop. I just have a preference, I think, toward calling, because I am not in a desperate situation. As played, would he have folded or called? I don't know. His hand was about as weak as I could imagine him calling with. And of course, as played, we wanted him to call.
Lastly, you may be overestimating the luck aspect of that river result. I certainly don't consider it to be a suck-out when you go in with a draw and end up hitting one of your fifteen outs.
Thanks for the analysis - very helpful and appreciated - I did realise I was IP...but when I have any kind of decent draw OOP I get even more scatter-brained about playing the hand, particularly re check-raising and raise sizes.