Can I get away from this?
I know this is a bad beat, but can I get away from this?
https://www.advancedpokertraining.com/poker/game.php?replay_id=126671&advisor_id=-1
PokerStars Game #119243837: Hold'em No Limit ($2/$5 USD) - 2017/08/29 22:06:54 ET
Table 'Stranded - Sahara, 9-max 2/5' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: finrod ($1284 in chips)
Seat 2: JoeyLu ($925 in chips)
Seat 3: SallyYang ($453 in chips)
Seat 4: StuartJefferson ($369 in chips)
Seat 5: RebeccaMichaels ($557 in chips)
Seat 6: TammySimpson ($644 in chips)
Seat 7: KevinFieldman ($289 in chips)
Seat 8: BlakeOlsen ($560 in chips)
Seat 9: BonnieHenderson ($489 in chips)
RebeccaMichaels: posts small blind $2
TammySimpson: posts big blind $5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to finrod [Jc Ac]
KevinFieldman: folds
BlakeOlsen: folds
BonnieHenderson: folds
finrod: raises $7 to $12
JoeyLu: folds
SallyYang: folds
StuartJefferson: raises $22 to $34
RebeccaMichaels: folds
TammySimpson: calls $29
finrod: calls $22
*** FLOP *** [Jd Td Js]
TammySimpson: bets $70
finrod: calls $70
StuartJefferson: raises $198 to $268
TammySimpson: raises $412 to $610 and is all-in
finrod: raises $710 to $1250 and is all-in
StuartJefferson: calls $67 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($640) returned to finrod
*** TURN *** [Jd Td Js] [Th]
*** RIVER *** [Jd Td Js Th] [4c]
Comments
I don't see how you fold top set there. I'm not sure either opponent goes anywhere pre-flop if you four-bet either. Maybe. I'm sure I'd have gotten it in the way you did. And had the stacks been deeper, you'd certainly, I think, have gotten it in on the turn when you filled up. I think quads is just one of those hands that is almost always going to stack somebody.
Maybe. There's only one other jack out there, but you have two opponents, one TAG and the other tight passive. Someone's got to have something that's not a jack. Tammy bet out the flop, then there was that whole raise-reraise which gets Stuart almost all-in and then Tammy all-in before it comes back around. AJ is second best, and pocket aces would be third best. TJ is possible but not likely considering the preflop betting. Stuart has a good hand and not a lot left, and he's the first to raise. I don't know, could he bet AA or KK this way? That would leave open the possibility that Tammy has the AJ (or maybe KJ -- not likely) and you're at least not going to lose. But that's maybe the only other combination.
I would be figuring how likely it is that the bot in question is on a stone-cold bluff. Vlad, Svetlana, or Karpov in KGB level do those bluffs, but not really this early in the hand. And, with two opponents putting stacks in, I just don't see one hitting and the other trying to bluff everyone off something this good.
So, I know it's a little easier in retrospect, but I think you are getting enough information to figure that there's a very good chance that somebody's got the nuts here.
It's like, on KGB level...I quit trying to get stacks in preflop with KK against the bots. If the bot is trying to reraise three times (?), it's got the aces, period. That is one bot tendency I have noticed. I did the Scotty Ngyuen challenge and felt good about how I performed (I "Beat the Pro," although I don't put a lot on that), and I feel it was due to specific plays based on knowing my opponents (some of the more LAG bots from KGB level), especially after watching the commentary. So maybe I noticed a pattern and snapped somebody off that he let go or something -- it's not so much that I was playing "better," but I had the right combination of reads, etc. for one or two situations (and the "variance was with me!").
Simple answer - nope.
Trip jacks is weaker than a set but no big deal here - as nyder says, quads is a rare beast of a hand...I'd have thought getting it all in was right here.
When you got it all in, you were ahead of the villain holding 10-10. Not just ahead, but way ahead.
I can't find any fault with your play. If a pro had been in her seat, a lot of them would have gotten out of the way. I mean, she was beat at that point, barring supernatural intervention.
It just was not your day.
Somebody said you won't go too wrong if you never ever fold trips. I hope to get to the point where I can fold trips but I am not there yet. That is a super advanced play.
Do you fold trips when the 3rd flush card hits? If you fold trips to me when the third flush card hits you probably just screwed up, because odds are I am bluffing.
Something that I don't do so well, but something that I know is possible a lot of the time is to get out of the way of trips and a set. I lose way more in this situation than I do from not folding trips.
Folding a flush to a full house is something I should have down, but I don't.
One thing I have noticed about Phil Galfond, who I have been studying lately on YouTube, is how quick he is to make a fold. Like, way quicker than I am. He is also way more particular about starting hands than I am.
You gotta figure we all make about the same thing off AA. So how are we gonna become winners? By playing AA a little better? Or by folding to AA quicker?
If I were to play a million hands with Phil Galfond and we were to take those hands and analyze them, we would see Phil losing a lot less when I held AA than I lost when he held it.
He would win more when he held AA and I held AA, but this would be way closer.