Good or Bad Fold?
TAG MP, 105 BBs, raises 3.5BB; H in SB with QQ; I have V covered with 125 BBs. I 3Bet to 2200; V 4bets 4800. I think and think and think. Let’s assume TAG 4bet MP linear range is 2% (KK+ (I block QQ), AK, AQs (partially blocked)). QQ has 40% raw equity versus that range. I have to put $2700 more in to win $7800 (including my call, math right?) 35% to Break Even; so a call is statistically profitable. But here’s the thing: I am OOP v a TAG IP, representing a Big Hand. Let’s say the worst hand V has is AKo. If an A or a K hits the flop, I am dead. If the flop is anything other than Qxx and V c-bets, I am probably dead (AA,KK). How do I make $ here? Position wins. I fold. BTW, V had AKo and flop would have been xKx, so I felt justified, even if fold was incorrect. AI urged me to call.