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All pairs


I had a short enough stack that it was all going in, anyway. But I think the odds against this outcome were pretty steep.

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  • mrfleming
    edited March 2019

    I’m practicing with fllopzilla using Think’s hand which is an over pair to the board. It’s a multi way pot with three opponents post flop. The ATP software labels Think’s preflop (TdTc) as questionable. The flop (7h, 8c, 2s) is low, rainbow and has two connected cards. MP raises 3.5BB, the hijack calls, and Think calls in the cut off. The BU then 3 bets to almost 4X the 2 bet, and everyone calls that raise. The Turn comes a Qd and the OOP MP raises ½ pot, the hijack and Think call, and the BU 3 bets to almost pot size. Everyone calls putting all four players all-in. Think’s TdTc goes down to not only JJ but QQ but KK as well, thus the title “All pairs”. MP has the QQ and wins with a FH.

    I open three instances of flopzilla and connect them with the app HoldEq then assign ranges based on table position. 15% for MP 18% for hijack and 25% range for the BU. I let flopzilla do the filtering on each street.

    Think’s equity preflop is in the low 30’s against all three ranges.

    Think's equity on the flop is 30% against the BU, and 34% against the MP and 36% against the hijack. His pot odds were acceptable for both raises on the street.

    Everyone is all in at this point, so strategy is over.

    Think’s equity on the Turn begins to drop against the BU (26%) but improves against the MP (33%) and against the hijack (40%).

    Think’s equity on the river is 33% against the BU, 31% against the MP and 34% against the hijack.

    APT’s “questionable call - preflop" comes from earlier position raising and calling. So, it's questionable because Think is in the cut off position and while we’d all play TT in this position against a 3.5BB raise, we would do so only occasionally. The continued heavy betting would have gotten me out of the hand.

    The board was unpaired until the river, did not provide a flush and lost its connectivity on the turn. In hindsight, I’d say that multiple players staying in on this kind of board makes it obvious other pairs were involved.

    Think's short stack was 39 BB, his M ratio was 26 and SPR before the preflop 3 bet was 5.0. These indicate a fold rather than a commitment to the hand, again, hindsight. Perhaps this contributed to the "questionable" tag.

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