Effective decision-making is key to winning in poker. Here are seven powerful strategies to help you make better poker decisions and improve your game.
Think In Terms Of Probabilities
You can never be 100% certain of anything in this game. To be more accurate, try to assign percentages to items you are attempting to estimate.
Let’s say on the river your opponent could be bluffing a missed flush draw, but you’re only 40% sure they would fire with that hand. That isn’t much to go on. You should probably fold.
Compare that to another situation I once faced in a large tournament. A hyper aggressive big stacked player moved all-in on me on the river. There were six missed draws on the board. I estimated that he was 95% likely to be firing with all of those missed draws, and had never been that sure before.
I called him with K-J high, and was correct. He had a busted straight draw. Those probability estimates helped me make better poker decisions.
Realize You Cannot Read Someone’s Mind
When someone threebets us three times, we almost always assume we can read their mind.
“They think they can run over us! They think we are weak!”
Relax. I can’t read anyone’s mind and neither can you. It’s possible this person feels they can outplay you, sure, but you don’t know that. It’s also possible this person has picked up three strong hands. This person may also be excited to play their favorite hands.
The point is that you have no idea why most people do the things they do. Don’t change your strategy wildly based on assumptions you don’t have a shred of proof of. You will make better poker decisions based on facts, not fantasy.
Take More Time To Make Poker Decisions On The River
You can’t think through anything if you don’t even give yourself time to think. Bet sizes on the river are galactically larger than earlier bet sizes. Take as much time as you need to think through river decisions.
I lost count of how many times during the Main Event I saw someone rush a river decision and light $10,000 on fire. It’s your tournament. Make them call the clock on you if they have a problem with how much time you need. That’s what the clock is there for.
You’ll be surprised by how blatantly easy some river decisions become if you take your time. I had one instance recently where I was thinking through a river decision. I was pretty close to a fold, but I took some time to make sure of my decision. My opponent seemed to realize he was likely to not get any action, so he started trying to do anything he could to look nervous. It was comical.
Realize That Having No Opinion Is An Option
It always stuns me how poker players can have an opinion on seemingly every hand. “I would have done this because…”
It is totally acceptable to not have an opinion. It’s a great starting point to say, “I don’t know,” or “I’ve traditionally done this for these reasons, but I’m open to being wrong.”
Being absolutely certain of every single little thing in a game this complicated is a coping mechanism. People love to grasp at false certainty instead of sitting with the uncomfortable feeling of unknowing.
Learn What To Ignore When Making Poker Decisions
Almost all information offered in the real world is motivated, and the poker table is no different. If you see a hand at showdown, that is pure, that is a truth. That is a strong data point.
If you’re listening to poker players discuss hands they didn’t show down, then you’re just going to be wasting your time. They lie in order to puff themselves up or hide their true strategies.
When someone asks you what your hand was, don’t give them anything, and don’t listen to what they supposedly had. I always use the line, “I’m not good enough to discuss my hands.”
Do Not Trust Your Memory
Many of us have a selective memory, and I’m no different. I can remember a couple of hands in my life where I got insanely lucky, but I can only remember those hands because they were huge for my career at the time.
However, I remember bad beats vividly. I can tell you every detail about the largest bad beats I’ve taken or flips that didn’t go my way.
I’m not special. Many of us have memories like this. Our brains prize certain data and discard everything else. We can’t trust that. If you believe you constantly run bad, start tracking every single hand you play. Read everything back to yourself at a later date. Have a pro analyze your hands. You might be surprised at what you find. Never make important poker decisions based on your faulty memory of past hands.
Do Not Trust Your Gut
Some incredible poker players can trust their gut in every situation, but I’m not one of them. I love to play the game. I love to mix it up. My gut always tells me, “gamble up. He’s bluffing.” My gut is an idiot.
If I listened to my gut all the time when trying to make big poker decisions, I’d be broke. I only listen to my gut in rare instances when he’s overwhelmingly positive of something. These instances come up rarely.
Keep track of all the hands you played where you listened to your gut. How did those hands go? How out of line were you getting?
Summary
Improving your poker decisions involves thinking in terms of probabilities and accepting that mind reading is impossible. Take more time on the river, recognize that having no opinion is sometimes the best option, and learn what to ignore. By not trusting your memory or gut instincts, you’ll make more rational and effective choices at the table.
Want to read more from APT Head Pro Alex Fitzgerald? Try his article about the 5 Advanced Techniques for Exploiting Betting Patterns
